FXUS61 KILN 082317
          AFDILN
          
          Area Forecast Discussion
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          717 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026
          
          .WHAT HAS CHANGED...
          No significant changes.
          
          &&
          
          .KEY MESSAGES...
          1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday
          night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, increasing the threat
          for flooding.
          
          2) Very warm temperatures will develop in the middle of the week.
          
          &&
          
          .DISCUSSION...
          KEY MESSAGE 1)
          
          A shortwave will move east across the area Tuesday morning, early
          afternoon over the Scioto River Valley eastward. Anomalously high
          PWATs and warm cloud depths will continue, leading to very efficient
          rain in storms that develop. With this timing, the best coverage of
          storms will be east of the area in the afternoon. The steady eastward
          push of the s/w may lessen the potential for focused heavy rain in
          any given location. However, the environment in place will still
          need for us to maintain a heightened awareness for flooding.
          
          
          KEY MESSAGE 2)
          
          In the wake of any potential early convection, mid level heights
          will rise on Wednesday. Trends continue to be less amplified in the
          ridge but temperatures in the mid to upper 80s look likely on
          Wednesday and Thursday. With the dew point in the lower to mid 70s,
          max heat indices are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s.
          
          A vigorous trough working its way across the northern part of the
          country will suppress the mid level ridge will a surface cold front
          pushing through the region on Friday. So temperatures will be not
          quite as warm but still above normal late in the week into the
          weekend.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
          Initial concern for the overnight hours lies with the potential for
          MVFR cigs and areas of fog. Since the rain today was neither
          widespread or heavy over any significant area, it looks like fog will
          not be a threat during the overnight hours. MVFR cigs before daybreak
          look to be prevalent, and indications of IFR are being shown for all
          but CMH/LCK.
          
          Showers and storms are expected to move w-e and could start before
          daybreak in the west, reaching CMH/LCK towards noon. Models are quite
          divergent in this time period, with some of the CAMs bringing very
          little if any convection to the terminals. The larger scale models
          all indicate a more widespread precip event covering everyone. They
          still have a wider than normal variance between them, leading to a
          higher level of uncertainty in the evolution of storms and subsequent
          timing/placement.
          
          Given a slightly higher indication of precip early tomorrow at
          CVG/LUK/DAY and slightly later at ILN, was a little more confident to
          add showers combined with either a tempo TS or prob30 for the
          morning. Cigs/vsby will drop in this precip, and lower cigs will
          occur a little before any precip begins, and maintain an ovc deck for
          the remainder of the forecast, likely waffling on either side of the
          1000` threshold between IFR and MVFR, lifting to a higher MVFR deck
          towards evening.
          
          A south wind around 10kt will see some gusts 18-20kt through the
          daylight hours.
          
          OUTLOOK... MVFR cigs/vsbys could linger through Wednesday morning.
          Thunderstorms remain possible Wednesday through Friday, with a
          greater potential found in the afternoon and evening.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          
          DISCUSSION...AR/Franks
          AVIATION...Franks