KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/18/2024 1800 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/18/2024 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	5/18 18:00 Sat	5/18 21:00 Sat	5/19 00:00 Sun	5/19 03:00 Sun	5/19 06:00 Sun	5/19 09:00 Sun	5/19 12:00 Sun	5/19 15:00 Sun	5/19 18:00 Sun	5/19 21:00 Sun	5/20 00:00 Mon	5/20 03:00 Mon	5/20 06:00 Mon	5/20 09:00 Mon	5/20 12:00 Mon	5/20 15:00 Mon	5/20 18:00 Mon	5/20 21:00 Mon	5/21 00:00 Tue	5/21 03:00 Tue	5/21 06:00 Tue	5/21 12:00 Tue	5/21 18:00 Tue
Date/Time Local	5/18 14:00 Sat	5/18 17:00 Sat	5/18 20:00 Sat	5/18 23:00 Sat	5/19 02:00 Sun	5/19 05:00 Sun	5/19 08:00 Sun	5/19 11:00 Sun	5/19 14:00 Sun	5/19 17:00 Sun	5/19 20:00 Sun	5/19 23:00 Sun	5/20 02:00 Mon	5/20 05:00 Mon	5/20 08:00 Mon	5/20 11:00 Mon	5/20 14:00 Mon	5/20 17:00 Mon	5/20 20:00 Mon	5/20 23:00 Mon	5/21 02:00 Tue	5/21 08:00 Tue	5/21 14:00 Tue
GFS-N/X	--	--					62				88				63				88			65
NAM-N/X							59				84				61				85	--		64	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	76	70	67	64	67	79	84	86	82	73	68	65	68	79	84	86	82	74	69	69	84
NAM-TMP	77	78	75	68	65	62	63	76	82	82	78	70	67	64	65	77	82	83	79	--	69	68	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	58	58	57	57	59	59	56	54	54	56	55	56	58	58	57	57	58	59	60	62	63
NAM-DPT	62	60	60	59	59	58	59	59	57	56	59	59	59	59	60	62	60	59	60	--	60	61	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	FW	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	SC	SC	FW	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	SC	SC	SC	FW	SC	SC	BK
NAM-CLD	BK	BK	SC	CL	CL	FW	CL	CL	SC	SC	FW	FW	FW	FW	FW	CL	BK	SC	SC	--	CL	FW	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	07	05	36	01	36	36	02	05	12	12	13	14	13	17	20	21	18	20	20	19	20
NAM-WDR	10	36	01	34	34	35	01	02	36	01	07	13	14	00	15	18	21	21	16	--	18	18	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	04	02	03	02	02	05	06	05	05	03	04	02	03	05	06	07	05	04	04	04	11
NAM-WSP	03	04	03	02	03	02	01	04	05	05	03	01	01	00	02	04	05	04	04	--	03	04	--
GFS-P06	--	--			0		2		0		0		1		2		4		4		0	10	4
NAM-P06			1		0		1		0		0		1		5		3		5	--	4	6	--
GFS-P12	--	--					2				0				2				5			15
NAM-P12							2				0				5				6	--		8	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	0	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	--	0	0	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					0				0				0				0			0
NAM-Q12							0				0				0				0	--		0	--
GFS-T06	--	--			0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 2		1/ 0		2/ 0		1/ 0		1/ 2		2/ 9		4/ 5		6/ 5
NAM-T06			11/ 6		8/ 1		0/ 0		2/ 2		15/ 8		9/ 4		4/ 0		4/ 3		16/18	--		3/ 1	--
GFS-T12	--	--							0/ 2				2/ 2				1/ 2				4/ 9		8/ 5
NAM-T12					11/10				2/ 2				19/10				4/ 3			--	19/18		--
GFS-POZ	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	0	--
GFS-POS	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	1	--
GFS-TYP	--	--	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	--	R	R	--
GFS-SNW	--	--													0							0
NAM-SNW							0								0					--		0	--
GFS-CIG	--	--	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
NAM-CIG	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	--	8	8	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	4	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	--	7	7	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	--	N	N	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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